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MARKET
ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
December 31, 2015
The following analysis has been used by the
Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is
provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the
background factors influencing current market prices.
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Recent Crude (US$/bbl) |
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WTI |
Brent |
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Dec 17 |
$ 34.95 |
$ 37.06 |
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Dec 18 |
$ 34.73 |
$ 36.88 |
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Dec 21 |
$ 34.74 |
$ 36.35 |
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Dec 22 |
$ 36.14 |
$ 36.11 |
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Dec 23 |
$ 37.50 |
$
37.36 |
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Dec 24 |
$ 38.10 |
$ 37.89 |
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Dec 28 |
$ 36.81 |
$ 36.62 |
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Dec 29 |
$ 37.87 |
$ 37.79 |
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Dec 30 |
$ 36.60 |
$ 36.46 |
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Average
Brent Crude for December:
$ 38.98. |
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West Texas Intermediate |
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Average |
Average |
Average |
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2015 |
2014 |
2013 |
|
January |
$ 47.56 |
$ 94.73 |
$ 94.70 |
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February |
$ 50.78 |
$100.57 |
$ 95.50 |
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March |
$ 47.87 |
$100.46 |
$ 92.73 |
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April |
$ 54.63 |
$102.15 |
$ 89.59 |
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May |
$ 59.37 |
$101.79 |
$ 94.93 |
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June |
$ 59.76 |
$105.14 |
$ 95.76 |
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July |
$ 50.93 |
$102.39 |
$104.68 |
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August |
$ 42.89 |
$ 96.08 |
$106.49 |
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September |
$ 45.48 |
$ 93.03 |
$106.24 |
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October |
$ 46.29 |
$ 84.52 |
$100.74 |
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November |
$ 42.94 |
$ 77.55 |
$ 94.00 |
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December |
$ 37.33 |
$ 59.82 |
$ 97.87 |
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US $
Per Barrel |
CDN
Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
| |
CRUDE |
RUL |
F/O |
DIESEL |
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Dec 29/15 |
$ 37.87 |
95.9 |
72.6 |
103.9 |
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Dec 29/14 |
$ 53.61 |
99.9 |
91.3 |
122.9 |
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YOY Diff. |
-15.74 |
-4.0 |
-18.7 |
-19.0 |
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% Change |
-29.4% |
-4.0% |
-20.5% |
-15.5% |
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Commentary: |
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Both Brent and WTI
crude pricing remained relatively consistently priced in the
mid to high $30.00 range over the past two weeks. With
increased US domestic production not significantly impacted
by OPEC's uncapped production levels, the gap between Brent
and WTI pricing has narrowed over the past year. Indeed
with the US Congress recently lifting restrictions on the
export of US crude, WTI in recent days is now being priced
at a premium to Brent, a situation not seen for some years
now. Going forward, crude pricing continues to be
influenced primarily by US dollar fluctuation, related
speculative activity and continued OPEC led market
oversupply management. No appreciable increase in crude
pricing is anticipated for the near future.
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Economic Data: |
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1. Platts Inventory
Update:
The US
Energy Department ("DOE") weekly petroleum inventory
assessment, issued December 30, 2015, reported an increase in US
crude stocks of 2,629,000 barrels.
US gasoline
inventories increased by 925,000 barrels over the previous
reporting period. Implied demand increased by 210,000.
US distillate inventories
increased by 1,795,000 barrels.
US
refinery utilization rates increased by 1.3% to 92.6% of
capacity.
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Weekly
(bbl) |
Year over Year
% Change |
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Crude |
+2,629,000 |
+26.5% |
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Gasoline |
+925,000 |
-3.3% |
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Distillates |
+1,795,000 |
+21.8% |
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Source: DOE December 30, 2015 |
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Legend: |
| DOE |
Department of Energy |
| RUL |
Regular Unleaded Gasoline |
| F/O |
Furnace Oil |
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WTI |
West Texas Intermediate |
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